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need a crossover or SUV-size vehicle, the very markets where there currently isn't an effective battery technology at a competitive price." Though this seems like a great opportu- nity, they would compete with conventional vehicles that are much less expensive. Yet Shepard sees Japan continuing as ground zero for FCV development given the close relationship between domestic OEMs and the government. "They are heavily aligned," he says, "and their adoption of the tech- nology could support that business model to a point in the future where it could be adopted elsewhere. And while Japan is the FCVs mass market hope, it's really hard to say that it has a chance in the U.S. in the next 20 years." One other reason for that pessimism comes from the changes taking place in the luxury market. Shepard and his colleagues at Navigant Research see vehicles with a 200-mile or greater range taking as much as 25 percent to 30 percent of the premium luxury market in the future. "Premium vehicle makers don't have another technology they can rely on to bring them into compliance [with future regulations], and this is the only technology that can provide the same level of performance as their existing engine technology," he says. Stop-start has minimal effect on fuel economy and emissions, downsizing and turbocharging has its limits, and vehicles like the four-cylinder Mercedes S-Class hybrid have shown the sales limitations of hybrids in terms of market acceptance. "A big reason BEV technology works in the premium segment," he says, "is that the price of the vehicle is higher while the premium for the technology is lower as a percentage of total vehicle cost. It's much easier to add $10,000 to a $60,000 car than it is to a $20,000 car." With premium brands accounting for about 12 percent of U.S. market sales, a 20 percent to 30 percent BEV penetration rate equates to 3 percent to 4 percent of the total market. As this happens, it will trickle down to the rest of the market. According to Shepard, "By 2020, you won't have any BEVs on the market with under 120 miles of range. "That will be the baseline, and these vehicles largely will be in the non-premium segment." In addition, he claims, there will be 20 to 30 models with more than 200 miles of range in the premium segments, and they will be joined by a further five to 10 models with a similar range from mainstream brands. However, even with this increase in sales, Shepard says vehicles with 120 to 200 miles of range "will still be stumbling around at 1 percent to 2 percent of the overall market." muratec-usa.com R E L I A B I L I T Y B Y D E S I G N ENGINEERING • MANUFACTURING APPLICATIONS • PROJECT MANAGEMENT PARTS • SERVICE • TRAINING At Murata Machinery, we take automation seriously. We don't simply "add automation," and it is not an option that can be chosen. Automation is the central concept behind every machine we build. It is who we are, it is what we do. And after 80 plus years of excellence, it is what makes us the leader in high production automated turning centers. More than just automation. This is Automation Elevated. Discover Automation Elevated to take your production efficiency and throughput to unbelievable new heights. AUTOMATION SHOULD NOT BE AN AFTERTHOUGHT. Visit muratec-usa.com or call 800.428.8469 to learn more. AUTOMATION ELEVATED. Booth# S-8844 36 EV FUTURE