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he says, "DC fast-chargers are not always cheaper than filling up on gasoline or diesel. And while costs are likely to drop in the future, system requirements are likely to advance such that the costs for using these systems are not likely to be small." On the other hand, suburban households have the option of purchasing a home station with which they can charge their vehicle overnight when electricity rates typically are cheaper. These consumers will buy BEVs, charge them at home and top them up (if necessary) while at work or at the mall. And while this suggests a potentially large decline in new vehicle sales as urban sales decline, Shepard says that might not be the case. "Automakers are already investigating changes to their business model that have a greater reliance on shared vehicles," he explains. "They are going to have to educate the consumer on how an electric vehicle that costs much less in terms of energy—because of various incentives—can support 90 percent to 95 percent of their needs, with the last 5 percent achieved via a shared vehicle rented from the dealership or car sharing company." In addition, and perhaps more impor- tantly in terms of new vehicle sales, as autonomous vehicles become practical and car sharing increases, individual vehicle transportation will be tailored to the type of trip. The expected reduction in vehicle congestion could increase use of that technology compared to other types of multi-modal transportation. These high-use, short-run electric vehicles, like the conventional vehicles that are shared, will have to be replaced more often, increasing sales. And this could result in a dramatic change in the way this vehicle is built, and the systems that support its maintenance. Says Shepard, "The skateboard idea, in this case, does make sense." What doesn't make as much sense, he feels, are fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). "The packaging constraints mean that you Jaguar claims it joined the Formula E race series to increase its understanding of performance EVs. That knowledge will be used on its all-aluminum X590 EV platform. It will spawn both a four- door sedan and SUV, with the latter rumored to use an electric motor at each corner. The X590-based SUV should not be confused with the Jaguar E-Pace electric SUV. That steel-chassis stop gap will be shared with Land Rover and based on the latest Discovery platform. It arrives in 2017, two years before the X590 vehicles. 34 EV FUTURE