Battery electric vehicles may
be coming to a suburban
driveway near you sooner
than you might think—
especially if your neighbors
buy premium cars.
THE EV
FUTURE
"The technology definitely has potential, but it's driven by
national or state-level policies fashioned or targeted at making
the supply of battery electric vehicles [BEVs] essential to an
automaker's bottom line, as well as the user's bottom line."
That, in a nutshell, is what is driving the adoption of BEVs, says
Scott Shepard, Senior Research Analyst, Energy at Navigant
Research ( navigantresearch.com ). However, that's not to say
that EV production never will be driven by demand.
"Two basic things need to happen," says Shepard. "The
technology has to be on par with the cost of a conventional
vehicle and have an operating experience that is consumer
friendly." Of the two, the technical side of this equation is
moving forward at surprising speed. "Five years ago, I don't
think people expected the technology to be where it is today,
breaking the 200 mile [range] threshold for under $40,000,"
he says. A growing market, driven in large part by government
incentives for owners and automakers, has improved the
economies of scale for battery production, and helped lower
the cost of lithium-ion batteries. As the market grows, the
gap between conventional vehicles and BEVs will continue to
decline, perhaps to the point that the BEV cost drops below
that of a gas-powered vehicle. "That's actually likely to happen
in segments of the market before 2025," says Shepard, though
he stresses the phrase "segments of the market." That's because
the minimum range requirements for a crossover or SUV are
significant, and larger vehicles need larger batteries. That
means the battery price for them has to fall even further to be
competitive. "It's very unlikely," he remarks, "that we'll see a
crossover BEV come to market before 2025 that is on par in
terms of cost with its conventional competitor."
By CHRISTOPHER A. SAWYER, Contributing Editor
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