Automotive Design and Production

MAR 2014

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warning. While this may be 0, there are still sensors and processors involved, so in this case zero is not nothing. Level 1 has one autonomous function, as in adaptive cruise control. It is autonomous because it adjusts its behavior based on conditions (i.e., if the cruise is set at 60 mph and the car is closing in on a vehicle ahead that is going less than 60, then it will automatically adjust its speed through braking or throttle adjustment). Level 2 has at least two autonomous functions. Level 3 is essentially auto pilot, but the pilot must be engaged. Then at Level 4, the vehicle can drive itself, but there are the interfaces needed for the driver to take control of the car (e.g., steering wheel, pedals). At Level p Through sensor fusion and signifcant processing power, the Mercedes S-Class is capable of semi-autonomous driving: note where the driver's hands are positioned. So we asked Egil Juliussen, principal analyst for infotainment and autonomous driver assistance systems, IHS Automotive, a co-author of the study. He thinks that self-driving cars are "inevitable." And innumerate the reasons why: 1. Accident avoidance. According to Juliussen, over 90% of auto accidents are driver error. And accidents are costly: "The U.S. accident costs are in the $300-billion per year [range] or around 2% of GDP." Self-driving cars can address this. 2. Technology. "Essentially," he says, "the self-driving car will be the result of 50 years of driver-assist technology advances. These technologies are done at the semiconductor chip and sensor level, at the module level from the Tier 1s and others, and at the auto OEMs at the system level." Then add in advances 5, the car is completely autonomous, with no driver input when it comes to the driving, and not even the means by which to do so. So, as for the "when" that IHS is anticipating: on a global basis, there will be some 230,000 self-driving vehicles (Levels 4 and 5) by 2025. This number will grow to 11.8-million by 2035. Of that total, 7-million will be Level 4 and 4.8-million will be fully autonomous, Level 5 vehicles. Of the combined number, the North American market will have the largest global share, 29%, or some 3.5-million vehicles. If one takes into account the cumulative number of Level 4 and Level 5 vehicles on the road, by 2035 IHS calculates that there will be some 54-million in the world. But all of this raises a single question: Why? 40 AD&P; > March 2014 > FEATURE > On Electronic Advances > Gary S. Vasilash > gsv@autofeldguide.com 0314ADP FEATURE Electronics.indd 40 2/18/2014 3:31:05 PM

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